Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at Different Time Scales in Jilin Province, China

Rui Zhang, Taotao Chen and Daocai Chi
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Rui Zhang: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Taotao Chen: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Daocai Chi: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 5, 1-19

Abstract: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been widely applied, due to its multi-scalar features and the ability to identify different drought types. However, its sensitivity to climatic variables still remains unclear, especially at different time scales. Therefore, this study investigates the sensitivity of SPEI to average temperature ( T mean ), diurnal temperature ranges ( T delta ), relative humidity ( RH ), solar radiation ( Rs ), wind speed ( U 2 ), geothermal flux ( G ), and precipitation ( P ) from 1957 to 2017 using the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test at different time scales in Jilin Province, China. Jilin Province experienced a significant rise in T mean , and a sharp decrease in T delta , Rs , and U 2 . P is undoubtedly the most influential factor to the SPEI among the meteorological variables, which explained 59.9%–97.9% of the total variability, especially during the main crop growing season (from May to September). While T mean , RH , or U 2 observably affect the SPEI and cannot be neglected during the nongrowing season. In terms of spatial distribution, the SPEI was mainly affected by P in the eastern region, while it was also influenced by T mean , RH , and U 2 as well in the western region. The sensitivity of the SPEI differs in time scales: P > T mean > RH > U 2 > Rs > G > T delta (1 to 6 month), P > U 2 > RH ≈ T mean > G > Rs > T delta (7 to 18 month), and P > U 2 > G > T mean > RH > Rs > T delta (more than 24 month time scale), respectively. The results have the potential to provide a reference for agricultural production and management in Jilin Province, China.

Keywords: trend analysis; sensitivity analysis; Penman-Monteith; Jilin; SPEI; EFAST (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:5:p:1713-:d:324898

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