Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potentials and Economics of Selected Biochemicals in Germany

Frazer Musonda, Markus Millinger and Daniela Thrän
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Frazer Musonda: Department of Bioenergy, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Markus Millinger: Department of Bioenergy, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Daniela Thrän: Department of Bioenergy, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-19

Abstract: In this paper, biochemicals with the potential to substitute fossil reference chemicals in Germany were identified using technological readiness and substitution potential criteria. Their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were quantified by using life cycle assessments (LCA) and their economic viabilities were determined by comparing their minimum selling prices with fossil references’ market prices. A bottom up mathematical optimization model, BioENergy OPTimization (BENOPT) was used to investigate the GHG abatement potential and the corresponding abatement costs for the biochemicals up to 2050. BENOPT determines the optimal biomass allocation pathways based on maximizing GHG abatement under resource, capacity, and demand constraints. The identified biochemicals were bioethylene, succinic acid, polylactic acid (PLA), and polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Results show that only succinic acid is economically competitive. Bioethylene which is the least performing in terms of economics breaks even at a carbon price of 420 euros per ton carbon dioxide equivalent (€/tCO 2 eq). With full tax waivers, a carbon price of 134 €/tCO 2 eq is necessary. This would result in positive margins for PHA and PLA of 12% and 16%, respectively. From the available agricultural land, modeling results show high sensitivity to assumptions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration in biochemicals and integrated biochemicals production. GHG abatement for scenarios where these assumptions were disregarded and where they were collectively taken into account increased by 370% resulting in a 75% reduction in the corresponding GHG abatement costs.

Keywords: biochemicals; biobased polymers; bioeconomy; greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement; GHG abatement scenario analysis; optimal biomass allocation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:2230-:d:331845

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