Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate the Influence of Vehicular Emission Variables on Morbidity and Mortality in the Largest Metropolis in South America

Yslene Kachba, Daiane Maria de Genaro Chiroli, Jônatas T. Belotti, Thiago Antonini Alves, Yara de Souza Tadano and Hugo Siqueira
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Yslene Kachba: Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Technology—Parana (UTFPR), Ponta Grossa 84017-220, Brazil
Daiane Maria de Genaro Chiroli: Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Technology—Parana (UTFPR), Ponta Grossa 84017-220, Brazil
Jônatas T. Belotti: Department of Computational Science, Federal University of Technology—Parana (UTFPR), Ponta Grossa 84017-220, Brazil
Thiago Antonini Alves: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Technology—Parana (UTFPR), Ponta Grossa 84017-220, Brazil
Yara de Souza Tadano: Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology—Parana (UTFPR), Ponta Grossa 84017-220, Brazil
Hugo Siqueira: Department of Computational Science, Federal University of Technology—Parana (UTFPR), Ponta Grossa 84017-220, Brazil

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-15

Abstract: The emission of pollutants from vehicles is presented as a prime factor deteriorating air quality. Thus, seeking public policies encouraging the use and the development of more sustainable vehicles is paramount to preserve populations’ health. To better understand the health risks caused by air pollution and exclusively by mobile sources urges the question of which input variables should be considered. Therefore, this research aims to estimate the impacts on populations’ health related to road transport variables for São Paulo, Brazil, the largest metropolis in South America. We used three Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) (Multilayer Perceptron—MLP, Extreme Learning Machines—ELM, and Echo State Neural Networks—ESN) to estimate the impacts of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter on outcomes for respiratory diseases (morbidity—hospital admissions and mortality). We also used unusual inputs, such as road vehicles fleet, distributed and sold fuels amount, and vehicle average mileage. We also used deseasonalization and the Variable Selection Methods (VSM) (Mutual Information Filter and Wrapper). The results showed that the VSM excluded some variables, but the best performances were reached considering all of them. The ELM achieved the best overall results to morbidity, and the ESN to mortality, both using deseasonalization. Our study makes an important contribution to the following United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: 3—good health and well-being, 7—affordable and clean energy, and 11—sustainable cities and communities. These research findings will guide government about future legislations, public policies aiming to warranty and improve the health system.

Keywords: electric vehicles; respiratory diseases; UN sustainable development goals; air pollution; particulate matter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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