The Assessment of Climate Change on Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity in the Chirchik–Akhangaran Basin, Uzbekistan

Khusen Sh. Gafforov, Anming Bao, Shavkat Rakhimov, Tie Liu, Farkhod Abdullaev, Liangliang Jiang, Khaydar Durdiev, Eldiiar Duulatov, Moldir Rakhimova and Yerbolat Mukanov
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Khusen Sh. Gafforov: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Anming Bao: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Shavkat Rakhimov: Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
Tie Liu: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Farkhod Abdullaev: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Liangliang Jiang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Khaydar Durdiev: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Eldiiar Duulatov: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Moldir Rakhimova: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Yerbolat Mukanov: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-21

Abstract: Changes in the frequency or intensity of rainfall due to climate always affect the conservation of soil resources, which leads to land degradation. The importance of assessing past and future climate differences plays an important role in future planning in relation to climate change. The spatiotemporal variability of erosivity depending on precipitation using the rainfall erosivity (R) of Universal Soil Loss Equation under the global circulation model (GCM) scenarios in the Chirchik–Akhangaran Basin (CHAB), which is in the northeastern part of the Republic of Uzbekistan, was statistically downscaled by using the delta method in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 during the periods of the 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. The (R) was used to determine the erosivity of precipitation, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) itself determined the effects of changes in erosivity. Ten weather station observational data points for the period from 1990 to 2016 were used to validate the global circulation models (GCMs) and erosion model. The assessment results showed an increase in precipitation from the baseline by an average of 11.8%, 14.1% and 16.3% for all models by 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively, while at the same time, soil loss increased in parallel with precipitation by 17.1%, 20.5 % and 23.3%, respectively, in certain scenarios. The highest rainfall was observed for the models ACCESS1–3 and CanESM2 on both RCPs and periods, while more intense rainfall was the main reason for the increase in the spatial and temporal erosion activity of the rainfall-runoff. This study is a useful reference for improving soil conservation, preventing water erosion and ensuring the future sustainability of agricultural products, as well as improving the operational management and planning of agriculture.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff erosivity; RUSLE; GCMs; soil erosion; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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