Understanding Technology, Fuel, Market and Policy Drivers for New York State’s Power Sector Transformation

Mine Isik and P. Ozge Kaplan
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Mine Isik: Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 TW Alexander Dr., Durham, NC 27709, USA
P. Ozge Kaplan: Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 TW Alexander Dr., Durham, NC 27709, USA

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-23

Abstract: A thorough understanding of the drivers that affect the emission levels from electricity generation, support sound design and the implementation of further emission reduction goals are presented here. For instance, New York State has already committed a transition to 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper identifies the relationships among driving factors and the changes in emissions levels between 1990 and 2050 using the logarithmic mean divisia index analysis. The analysis relies on historical data and outputs from techno-economic-energy system modeling to elucidate future power sector pathways. Three scenarios, including a business-as-usual scenario and two policy scenarios, explore the changes in utility structure, efficiency, fuel type, generation, and emission factors, considering the non-fossil-based technology options and air regulations. We present retrospective and prospective analysis of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emissions for the New York State’s power sector. Based on our findings, although the intensity varies by period and emission type, in aggregate, fossil fuel mix change can be defined as the main contributor to reduce emissions. Electricity generation level variations and technical efficiency have relatively smaller impacts. We also observe that increased emissions due to nuclear phase-out will be avoided by the onshore and offshore wind with a lower fraction met by solar until 2050.

Keywords: power sector; CO 2 emissions; NO x emissions; SO 2 emissions; energy use; decomposition analysis; LMDI; MARKAL; energy systems analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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