How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? Scenarios Tested in Sweden

Anna Pernestål, Albin Engholm, Marie Bemler and Gyözö Gidofalvi
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Anna Pernestål: Integrated Transport Research Lab, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Albin Engholm: Integrated Transport Research Lab, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Marie Bemler: Scania CV AB, 151 48 Södertälje, Sweden
Gyözö Gidofalvi: Integrated Transport Research Lab, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, “How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?” is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.

Keywords: freight transport; future scenarios; intuitive logic; logistics; digitalization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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