Predictive Modeling of Transport Infrastructure Space for Urban Growth Phenomena in Developing Countries’ Cities: A Case Study of Kano — Nigeria

Suleiman Hassan Otuoze, Dexter V. L. Hunt and Ian Jefferson
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Suleiman Hassan Otuoze: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15-2TT, UK
Dexter V. L. Hunt: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15-2TT, UK
Ian Jefferson: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15-2TT, UK

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: Global urbanization has the most tremendous negative effects on the changing landscapes in many developing countries’ cities. It is necessary to develop appropriate monitoring techniques for tracking transport space evolution. The work explores the impacts of urban growth dynamics of transport space over the past decades as a basis for predicting future space demands in Kano, Nigeria. Three epochs of Landsat images from 1984, 2013 and 2019 were processed, classified and analyzed. Spatial classifications of land-use/land-cover (LULC) types in Kano include transport space, built-up areas, vegetation, farmland, bare land and water. The data analysis involves model calibration, validation and prediction using areas using the hybrid modeling techniques—cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) in IDIRISI SELVA 17.0 and remote-sensing ARC-GIS 10.7 softwares. The result finds significant expansion of transport and built-up areas while other LULC receded throughout the entire study period. Predictive modeling of transport infrastructure shows spatial expansion by 345 km 2 (3.9%) and 410 km 2 (11.7%) in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Kappa reliability indices of agreement ( K IA ) classified images and ground maps were 85%, 86% and 88%, respectively, for 1984, 2013 and 2019 time series. The calibration quality met the 80% minimum suggested in literature for the spatial-temporal track and prediction of urban growth phenomena.

Keywords: transport; mobility infrastructures; land use land cover change; urban growth dynamics; spatial and temporal modeling; sustainable future cities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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