Investigating the Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on UK Supermarket Building Performance

Agha Hasan, Ali Bahadori-Jahromi, Anastasia Mylona, Marco Ferri and Hooman Tahayori
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Agha Hasan: Department of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, School of Computing and Engineering, University of West London, London W5 5RF, UK
Ali Bahadori-Jahromi: Department of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, School of Computing and Engineering, University of West London, London W5 5RF, UK
Anastasia Mylona: Research Department, The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE), London SW12 9BS, UK
Marco Ferri: Lidl Great Britain Ltd., 19 Worple Road, London SW19 4JS, UK
Hooman Tahayori: Department of Computer Science & Engineering and IT, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-24

Abstract: The large-scale shifts in weather patterns and an unprecedented change in climate have given rise to the interest in how climate change will affect the carbon emissions of supermarkets. This study investigates the implications of future climatic conditions on the operation of supermarkets in the UK. The investigation was conducted by performing a series of energy modelling simulations on a LIDL supermarket model in London, based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) future weather years provided by the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE). Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were used to perform the experiment, and the baseline model was validated against the actual data. This investigation ascertains and quantifies the annual energy consumption, carbon emissions, and cooling and heating demand of the supermarket under different climatic projections, which further validate the scientific theory of annual temperature rise as a result of long-term climatic variation. The maximum percentage increase for the annual energy consumption for current and future weather data sets observed was 7.01 and 6.45 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, respectively, and 11.05, 14.07, and 17.68 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. A similar inclining trend in the case of annual CO 2 emissions was observed where the peak increase percentage was 6.80 and 6.24 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high (90th) percentile, respectively and 10.84, 13.84, and 17.45 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium emissions scenario (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. The study also analyses the future heating and cooling demands of the three warmest months and three coldest months of the year, respectively, to determine future variance in their relative values.

Keywords: energy performance; future weather; sustainability; building simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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