Commercial Vacancy Prediction Using LSTM Neural Networks

Jaekyung Lee, Hyunwoo Kim and Hyungkyoo Kim
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Jaekyung Lee: Department of Urban Design and Planning, Hongik University, Seoul 04066, Korea
Hyunwoo Kim: Department of Urban Policy and Administration, Incheon National University, Incheon 22012, Korea
Hyungkyoo Kim: Department of Urban Design and Planning, Hongik University, Seoul 04066, Korea

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: Previous studies on commercial vacancy have mostly focused on the survival rate of commercial buildings over a certain time frame and the cause of their closure, due to a lack of appropriate data. Based on a time-series of 2,940,000 individual commercial facility data, the main purpose of this research is two-fold: (1) to examine long short-term memory (LSTM) as a feasible option for predicting trends in commercial districts and (2) to identify the influence of each variable on prediction results for establishing evidence-based decision-making on the primary influences of commercial vacancy. The results indicate that LSTM can be useful in simulating commercial vacancy dynamics. Furthermore, sales, floating population, and franchise rate were found to be the main determinants for commercial vacancy. The results suggest that it is imperative to control the cannibalization of commercial districts and develop their competitiveness to retain a consistent floating population.

Keywords: commercial vacancy; LSTM; time-series forecasting; spatial big data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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