Decision Tree and AHP Methods Application for Projects Assessment: A Case Study

Augustinas Maceika, Andrej Bugajev, Olga Regina Šostak and Tatjana Vilutienė
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Augustinas Maceika: The Faculty of Mechanics, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio Ave. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
Andrej Bugajev: The Faculty of Fundamental Sciences, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio Ave. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
Olga Regina Šostak: The Faculty of Fundamental Sciences, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio Ave. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
Tatjana Vilutienė: The Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio Ave. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-33

Abstract: This research is dedicated to the modelling of decision process occurring during the implementation of construction projects. Recent studies generally do not assess the robustness of the decisions regarding the possible changes during the construction project implementation. However, such an assessment might increase the reliability of the decision-making process. We addressed this gap through a new model that combines the decision-making process modelling with the AHP method and includes the analysis of model stability concerning stakeholders’ behaviour. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Decision tree methods to model the decision-making process. The proposed model was validated on a case study of multiple construction projects. The assessment was performed from individual investor’s and independent expert’s perspectives. The criteria for the assessment were selected according to the principles of sustainability. We performed the sensitivity analysis, making it possible to assess the possible changes of the decisions depending on the potential patterns of the decision-makers’ behaviour. The results of the study show that, sometimes, small fluctuations in the project factors affect the project selection indicating the possible lack of the robustness of the project decisions.

Keywords: project assessment; sustainability criteria; decision tree; analytic hierarchy process; construction projects; sensitivity analysis; decision robustness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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