Agricultural Support Policies and China’s Cyclical Evolutionary Path of Agricultural Economic Growth

Xiangdong Guo, Pei Lung, Jianli Sui, Ruiping Zhang and Chao Wang
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Xiangdong Guo: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Pei Lung: The Daniels College of Business, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
Jianli Sui: Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Ruiping Zhang: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Chao Wang: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-28

Abstract: Due to the weak nature of agricultural production, governments usually adopt supportive policies to protect food security. To discern the growth of agriculture from 2001 to 2018 under China’s agricultural support policies, we use the nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p) model to distinguish China’s agricultural economic cycle into three growth regimes—rapid, medium, and low—and analyze the probability of shifts and maintenance among the different regimes. We further calculated the average duration of each regime. Moreover, we calculated the growth regime transfers for specific times. In this study, we find that China’s agricultural economy has maintained a relatively consistent growth trend with the support of China’s proactive agricultural policies. However, China’s agricultural economy tends to maintain a low-growth status in the long-term. Finally, we make policy recommendations for agricultural development based on our findings that continue existing agricultural policies and strengthen support for agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry.

Keywords: agricultural development; agricultural economic cycle; agricultural policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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