Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

Jun Hou, Tianlin Qin, Shanshan Liu, Jianwei Wang, Biqiong Dong, Sheng Yan and Hanjiang Nie
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Jun Hou: School of Water Conservancy and Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, China
Tianlin Qin: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Shanshan Liu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Jianwei Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Biqiong Dong: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Sheng Yan: School of Water Conservancy and Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, China
Hanjiang Nie: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: Ecosystem service values are closely related to land use/cover change, however, the values affected by land use/cover change in the context of climate variability remain unclear. Based on the land use/cover data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 in the Yiluo River Basin, we quantitatively analyzed the impacts of historical land use/cover change on the ecosystem service values. Then the future land use simulation model was applied to predict the land use/cover distribution in 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, and the influences on ecosystem service values were analyzed further. We found that the total ecosystem service values in the Yiluo River Basin presented a growth from 9217 million dollars (2000) to 9676 million dollars (2020), which attributed to the increase of forestland and water bodies in recent years. By 2030, the total ecosystem service values continued to present an upward trend, while also showing a difference under three scenarios, this discrepancy was mainly caused by different precipitation conditions. With the introduction of the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin in the new period, climate change may be the main factors affecting the ecological field in the future.

Keywords: climate change; ecosystem service values; FLUS; land use/cover change; Yiluo River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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