Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis on Romania

Cristian Popescu () and Laura Diaconu (Maxim)
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Laura Diaconu (Maxim): Department of Economics and International Relations, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iasi, 700505 Iasi, Romania

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-16

Abstract: The purpose of our study is to identify the nature of the link between government spending and economic growth, in order to test the two theories of Wagner and Keynes, in the case of Romania. On the one hand, Keynes argues that public spending is an important tool to stimulate growth. On the other hand, Wagner says that increased public spending is a result of economic growth. We analyzed the long-term dynamics of the two time series through Johansen’s cointegration approach and, in the short term, with the help of Granger’s causality test. The obtained results do not indicate the existence of long-term cointegration vectors, but they support the double causality relation in the short term. Therefore, not only does GDP represent a Granger cause for government spending but also vice versa. Our results validate the liberal criticism of the state’s involvement in supporting economies. As the critics of the monetarist school said, the effect of multiplying government spending on national income is short-term. The long-term effect appears under the action of inflationary macroeconomic bottlenecks.

Keywords: government spending; economic growth; Wagner; Keynes; Granger causality test; johansen cointegration test; Romania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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