Towards Understanding Variability in Droughts in Response to Extreme Climate Conditions over the Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan

Adil Dilawar, Baozhang Chen, Arfan Arshad, Lifeng Guo, Muhammad Irfan Ehsan, Yawar Hussain, Alphonse Kayiranga, Simon Measho, Huifang Zhang, Fei Wang, Xiaohong Sun and Mengyu Ge
Additional contact information
Adil Dilawar: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Baozhang Chen: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Arfan Arshad: Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
Lifeng Guo: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Muhammad Irfan Ehsan: Institute of Geology, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
Yawar Hussain: Department of Geology, University of Liege, 4032 Liege, Belgium
Alphonse Kayiranga: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Simon Measho: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Huifang Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fei Wang: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xiaohong Sun: Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Mengyu Ge: School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-28

Abstract: Here, we provided a comprehensive analysis of long-term drought and climate extreme patterns in the agro ecological zones (AEZs) of Pakistan during 1980–2019. Drought trends were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at various timescales (SPEI-1, SPEI-3, SPEI-6, and SPEI-12). The results showed that droughts (seasonal and annual) were more persistent and severe in the southern, southwestern, southeastern, and central parts of the region. Drought exacerbated with slopes of −0.02, −0.07, −0.08, −0.01, and −0.02 per year. Drought prevailed in all AEZs in the spring season. The majority of AEZs in Pakistan’s southern, middle, and southwestern regions had experienced substantial warming. The mean annual temperature minimum (Tmin) increased faster than the mean annual temperature maximum (Tmax) in all zones. Precipitation decreased in the southern, northern, central, and southwestern parts of the region. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a robust increase in temperature extremes with a variance of 76% and a decrease in precipitation extremes with a variance of 91% in the region. Temperature and precipitation extremes indices had a strong Pearson correlation with drought events. Higher temperatures resulted in extreme drought (dry conditions), while higher precipitation levels resulted in wetting conditions (no drought) in different AEZs. In most AEZs, drought occurrences were more responsive to precipitation. The current findings are helpful for climate mitigation strategies and specific zonal efforts are needed to alleviate the environmental and societal impacts of drought.

Keywords: SPEI; temperature extremes; precipitation extremes; PCA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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