Agent-Based Modeling of the Hajj Rituals with the Possible Spread of COVID-19

Ali M. Al-Shaery, Bilal Hejase, Abdessamad Tridane, Norah S. Farooqi and Hamad Al Jassmi
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Ali M. Al-Shaery: Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Islamic Architecture, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah 21955, Saudi Arabia
Bilal Hejase: Department of Electrical Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
Abdessamad Tridane: Mathematical Sciences Department, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, United Arab Emirates
Norah S. Farooqi: College of Computer and Information Systems, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah 21955, Saudi Arabia
Hamad Al Jassmi: Emirates Center for Mobility Research, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, United Arab Emirates

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-13

Abstract: With the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continuing to spread around the globe, there is an unprecedented need to develop different approaches to containing the pandemic from spreading further. One particular case of importance is mass-gathering events. Mass-gathering events have been shown to exhibit the possibility to be superspreader events; as such, the adoption of effective control strategies by policymakers is essential to curb the spread of the pandemic. This paper deals with modeling the possible spread of COVID-19 in the Hajj, the world’s largest religious gathering. We present an agent-based model (ABM) for two rituals of the Hajj: Tawaf and Ramy al-Jamarat. The model aims to investigate the effect of two control measures: buffers and face masks. We couple these control measures with a third control measure that can be adopted by policymakers, which is limiting the capacity of each ritual. Our findings show the impact of each control measure on the curbing of the spread of COVID-19 under the different crowd dynamics induced by the constraints of each ritual.

Keywords: COVID-19; Hajj; disease dynamics; preventative measures; agent-based modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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