An Analysis of Factors Affecting the Severity of Cycling Crashes Using Binary Regression Model

Ahmed Jaber, János Juhász and Bálint Csonka
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Ahmed Jaber: Department of Transportation Engineering and Economics, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle, Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, 1111 Budapest, Hungary
János Juhász: Department of Transportation Engineering and Economics, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle, Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, 1111 Budapest, Hungary
Bálint Csonka: Department of Transportation Engineering and Economics, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle, Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, 1111 Budapest, Hungary

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-12

Abstract: The increasing use of bicycles rises the interest in investigating the safety aspects of daily commuting. In this investigation, more than 14,000 cyclists’ injuries were analyzed to determine the relationship between severity, road infrastructure characteristics, and surface conditions using binary regression. Minor and major severity categories were distinguished. A binary equation consists of 28 factors is extracted. It has been found that each factor related to roadway characteristics has its negative and positive impacts on cyclist severity such as traffic control, location type, topography, and roadway divisions. Regarding the road surface components, good, paved, and marked roads are associated with a higher probability of major injuries due to the expected greater frequencies of cyclists on roads with good conditions. In conclusion, probabilities of major injuries are higher in urban areas, higher speed limits, signalized intersections, inclined topographies, one-way roads, and during the daytime which require more attention and better considerations.

Keywords: risk analysis; cycling; road crashes; injury severity; regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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