Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020)

Mihail Eva, Alexandra Cehan and Alexandra Lazăr
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Alexandra Cehan: Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography and Geology, ‘Alexandru Ioan Cuza’ University of Iași, 700506 Iași, Romania
Alexandra Lazăr: Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography and Geology, ‘Alexandru Ioan Cuza’ University of Iași, 700506 Iași, Romania

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 13, 1-23

Abstract: EU post-socialist countries are nowadays the epicenter of urban shrinkage, despite economic growth trajectories reported during the last decades. However, systematic assessments of urban shrinkage patterns for this part of the continent are surprisingly insufficiently addressed in the literature, and the relationship between urban demographic decline/growth and economic decline/growth is still to be understood. This paper first delivers a state-of-the-art of the peculiarities of urban shrinkage in East-Central EU countries. Secondly, it employs an analysis grid to assess severity, prevalence, persistence, speed and regional incidence of urban decline in Romania—one of the most affected post-socialist countries within the European Union. Thirdly, it explores the statistical association between urban shrinkage severity and economic growth, on one hand, and between urban shrinkage severity and municipality revenues, on the other. Results show that urban shrinkage is currently increasing in prevalence and severity among Romanian cities, thus continuing an alarming trend that started in 1990. Secondly, the results pinpoint a statistically significant association between demographic shrinkage, local economic output and municipalities’ own-source revenues. However, the size effects are rather weak, suggesting a more nuanced relationship between economic and demographic urban growth than that predicted by some theories of urban change.

Keywords: demographic decline; post-socialist city; urban decline; urban growth; depopulation; de-densification; East-Central Europe; demographic shrinkage; post-socialist transition; urban growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:13:p:7514-:d:589060

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