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El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

Mehmet Balcilar, Elie Bouri (), Rangan Gupta and Christian Pierdzioch

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 14, 1-23

Abstract: We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

Keywords: El Niño-Southern Oscillation; realized heating oil price volatility; heterogenous autoregression; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: El Nino, La Nina, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements (2021)
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