Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan

Stanislav E. Shmelev, Vitaliy Salnikov, Galina Turulina, Svetlana Polyakova, Tamara Tazhibayeva, Tobias Schnitzler and Irina A. Shmeleva
Additional contact information
Stanislav E. Shmelev: Environment Europe Limited, Oxford OX2 6JG, UK
Vitaliy Salnikov: Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Galina Turulina: Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Svetlana Polyakova: Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Tamara Tazhibayeva: Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Tobias Schnitzler: Austrian Committee, The World University Service (WUS), 8010 Graz, Austria
Irina A. Shmeleva: Institute of Design and Urban Studies, ITMO University, 197101 St. Petersburg, Russia

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 15, 1-23

Abstract: In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis.

Keywords: climate change; food security; sustainable development goals; econometric modelling; Asia; Kazakhstan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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