Crash Prediction Models for Horizontal Curve Segments on Two-Lane Rural Roads in Thailand

Nopadon Kronprasert, Katesirint Boontan and Patipat Kanha
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Nopadon Kronprasert: Excellence Center in Infrastructure Technology and Transportation Engineering (ExCITE), Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Katesirint Boontan: Excellence Center in Infrastructure Technology and Transportation Engineering (ExCITE), Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Patipat Kanha: Excellence Center in Infrastructure Technology and Transportation Engineering (ExCITE), Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-18

Abstract: The number of road crashes continues to rise significantly in Thailand. Curve segments on two-lane rural roads are among the most hazardous locations which lead to road crashes and tremendous economic losses; therefore, a detailed examination of its risk is required. This study aims to develop crash prediction models using Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) as a tool to identify the relationship among road alignment, road geometric and traffic conditions, and crash frequency for two-lane rural horizontal curve segments. Relevant data associated with 86,599 curve segments on two-lane rural road networks in Thailand were collected including road alignment data from a GPS vehicle tracking technology, road attribute data from rural road asset databases, and historical crash data from crash reports. Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) for horizontal curve segments were developed, using Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, and calibrated Highway Safety Manual models. The results showed that the most significant parameter affecting crash frequency is lane width, followed by curve length, traffic volume, curve radius, and types of curves (i.e., circular curves, compound curves, reverse curves, and broken-back curves). Comparing among crash prediction models developed, the calibrated Highway Safety Manual SPF outperforms the others in prediction accuracy.

Keywords: road safety; accident analysis; crash prediction; safety performance function; two-lane rural roads; horizontal curves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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