Demand Forecasting for Liquified Natural Gas Bunkering by Country and Region Using Meta-Analysis and Artificial Intelligence

Gi-Young Chae, Seung-Hyun An and Chul-Yong Lee
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Gi-Young Chae: Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, 385, Haeyang-ro, Yeongdo-gu, Busan 49111, Korea
Seung-Hyun An: Korea Maritime Institute, 26, Haeyang-ro 301beon-gil, Yeongdo-gu, Busan 49111, Korea
Chul-Yong Lee: School of Business, Pusan National University, 2, Busan Daehak-ro 63beon-gil, Geumjeong-gu, Busan 46241, Korea

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-18

Abstract: Ship exhaust emission is the main cause of coastal air pollution, leading to premature death from cardiovascular cancer and lung cancer. In light of public health and climate change concerns, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and several governments are reinforcing policies to use clean ship fuels. In January 2020, the IMO reduced the acceptable sulfur content in ship fuel to 0.5% m/m (mass/mass) for sustainability. The use of liquified natural gas (LNG) as a ship fuel is currently the most likely measure to meet this regulation, and LNG bunkering infrastructure investment and network planning are underway worldwide. Therefore, the aim of this study is to predict the LNG bunkering demand for investment and planning. So far, however, there has been little quantitative analysis of LNG bunkering demand prediction. In this study, first, the global LNG bunkering demand was predicted using meta-regression analysis. Global demand for LNG bunkering is forecast to increase from 16.6 million tons in 2025 to 53.2 million tons in 2040. Second, LNG bunkering prediction by country and region was performed through analogy and artificial intelligence methods. The information and insights gained from this study may facilitate policy implementation and investments.

Keywords: LNG bunkering; demand forecasting; shipping industry for sustainability; climate change; IMO regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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