Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Changes Applying Cellular Automata in the South of Quito and the Machachi Valley, Province of Pichincha, Ecuador

René Ulloa-Espíndola and Susana Martín-Fernández
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René Ulloa-Espíndola: ETSI Agronómica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria sn, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Susana Martín-Fernández: ETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria sn, 28040 Madrid, Spain

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-25

Abstract: Rapid urban growth has historically led to changes in land use patterns and the degradation of natural resources and the urban environment. Uncontrolled growth of urban areas in the city of Quito has continued to the present day since 1960s, aggravated by illegal or irregular new settlements. The main objective of this paper is to generate spatial predictions of these types of urban settlements and land use changes in 2023, 2028 and 2038, applying the Dinamica EGO cellular automata and multivariable software. The study area was the Machachi Valley between the south of the city of Quito and the rural localities of Alóag and Machachi. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the model and its applicability, thanks to the use of 15 social, physical and climate predictors and the validation process. The analysis of the land use changes throughout the study area shows that urban land use will undergo the greatest net increase. Growth in the south of Quito is predicted to increase by as much as 35% between 2018 and 2038 where new highly vulnerable urban settlements can appear. Native forests in the Andes and forest plantations are expected to decline in the study area due to their substitution by shrub vegetation or agriculture and livestock land use. The implementation of policies to control the land market and protect natural areas could help to mitigate the continuous deterioration of urban and forest areas.

Keywords: land use change; cellular automata; Quito; native forest; urban land use; rural land use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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