Health Impact Attributable to Improvement of PM 2.5 Pollution from 2014–2018 and Its Potential Benefits by 2030 in China

Yu Ma, Deping Li and Liang Zhou
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Yu Ma: Hunan Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Deping Li: Hunan Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Liang Zhou: Hunan Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-18

Abstract: With the advancement of urbanization and industrialization, air pollution has become one of the biggest challenges for sustainable development. In recent years, ambient PM 2.5 concentrations in China have declined substantially due to the combined effect of PM 2.5 control and meteorological conditions. To this end, it is critical to assess the health impact attributable to PM 2.5 pollution improvement and to explore the potential benefits which may be obtained through the achievement of future PM 2.5 control targets. Based on PM 2.5 and population data with a 1 km resolution, premature mortality caused by exposure to PM 2.5 in China from 2014 to 2018 was estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Then, the potential benefits of achieving PM 2.5 control targets were estimated for 2030. The results show that premature mortality caused by PM 2.5 pollution decreased by 22.41%, from 2,361,880 in 2014 to 1,832,470 in 2018. Moreover, the reduction of premature mortality in six major regions of China accounted for 52.82% of the national total reduction. If the PM 2.5 control target can be achieved by 2030, PM 2.5 -related premature deaths will further decrease by 403,050, accounting for 21.99% of those in 2018. Among them, 87.02% of cities exhibited decreases in premature deaths. According to the potential benefits in 2030, all cities were divided into three types, of which type III cities should set stricter PM 2.5 control targets and further strengthen the associated monitoring and governance. The results of this study provide a reference for the formulation of air pollution control policies based on regional differences.

Keywords: PM 2.5; health impact; spatiotemporal changes; potential benefits; GEMM; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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