A Study into the Availability, Costs and GHG Reduction in Drop-In Biofuels for Shipping under Different Regimes between 2020 and 2050

Douwe F. A. van der Kroft and Jeroen F. J. Pruyn
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Douwe F. A. van der Kroft: Department of Maritime and Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands
Jeroen F. J. Pruyn: Department of Maritime and Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-20

Abstract: In this study, various scenarios were developed that correspond to estimations of future biomass availability and biofuel demand from the maritime industry. These marine biofuel demand scenarios were based on the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction targets of the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). A multi-objective Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model was developed which is used to optimize the Well-to-Tank (WtT) phases of each studied scenario. This resulted in an overview of the most feasible use of feedstocks, deployment of new conversion technologies and trade flows between regions. Additionally, the results provided insight into the costs and emission reduction potential of marine biofuels. By analyzing the results from this study, improved insight into the potential of drop-in biofuels for reaching the proposed emission reduction targets for the maritime sector was developed. A trade-off between costs and emissions was found to result in potential GHG reductions between 68–95% compared to Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) for 800–2300 EUR/ton. More specifically, 80% GHG reduction compared to HFO can be achieved at fuel costs of between 900–1050 EUR/ton over the studied time period.

Keywords: biofuels; shipping; supply chain optimization; maritime; GHG reduction; multi- objective optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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