Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Growth under Integrated Urban Spatial Planning: A Case Study of Wuhan, China

Haofeng Wang, Yaolin Liu, Guangxia Zhang, Yiheng Wang and Jun Zhao
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Haofeng Wang: School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Yaolin Liu: School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Guangxia Zhang: School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Yiheng Wang: School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Jun Zhao: Qingdao Surveying & Mapping Institute, Qingdao 266000, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-21

Abstract: Although many publications have noted the impact of urban planning on urban development and land-use change, the incorporation of planning constraints into urban growth simulation has not been adequately addressed so far. This study aims to develop a planning-constrained cellular automata (CA) model by combining cell-based trade-off between urban growth and natural conservation with a zoning-based planning implementation mechanism. By adjusting the preference parameters of different planning zones, multiple planning-constrained scenarios can be generated. Taking the Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA), China as a case study, the planning-constrained CA model was applied to simulate current and future urban scenarios. The results show a higher simulation accuracy compared to the model without planning constraints. With the weakening of planning constraints, urban growth tends to occupy more ecological and agricultural land with high conservation priority. With the increase in preference on urban growth or natural conservation, the future urban land pattern will become more fragmented. Furthermore, new urban land beyond the planned urban development area can be captured in future urban scenarios, which will provide certain early warning. The simulation of the current urban spatial pattern should help planners and decisionmakers to evaluate the past implementation of urban planning, and scenarios simulation can provide effective support for future urban planning by evaluating the consequences.

Keywords: cellular automata; planning constraints; scenario simulation; urban growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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