A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi, Christine Fürst, Hossein Nazmfar, Ahad Rezayan and Mohammad Hassan Yazdani
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Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi: Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
Christine Fürst: Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
Hossein Nazmfar: Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran
Ahad Rezayan: Futures Studies Department, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran 009821, Iran
Mohammad Hassan Yazdani: Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-19

Abstract: Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest salt lakes, is rapidly losing water and drying up. This environmental hazard has raised concerns about the consequences and impact on the surrounding communities. In this paper, we use a futuristic view (horizon of 10 years based on medium-term planning) to identify the main environmental drivers in the surrounding settlements of the Urmia Lake basin. A qualitative method, based on cross-impact analysis, was used as a means of future research. We also used a Delphi-based expert panel method to collect data and extract the environmental impacts of Urmia Lake. After the three rounds of the Delphi process, the expert panel reached a high level of agreement (100%) on the top 17 environmental consequences. Then, these consequences were classified by driving force and dependency using the MICMAC method. The results show that reducing pasture area, soil and water salinity, groundwater decline and depletion, and destruction of surrounding agricultural lands play a significant role in environmental change in Urmia Lake. Overall, any small change in these variables may lead to fundamental changes in the entire system.

Keywords: future study; driving force; MICMAC; Delphi; Urmia Lake (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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