Assessment and Prediction of Climate Risks in Three Major Urban Agglomerations of Eastern China

Jieming Chou, Mingyang Sun, Wenjie Dong, Weixing Zhao, Jiangnan Li, Yuanmeng Li and Jianyin Zhou
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Jieming Chou: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Mingyang Sun: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Wenjie Dong: Atmospheric Science School, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Weixing Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Jiangnan Li: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Yuanmeng Li: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Jianyin Zhou: College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 23, 1-21

Abstract: In the context of global climate change and urban expansion, extreme urban weather events occur frequently and cause significant social problems and economic losses. To study the climate risks associated with rapid urbanization in the global context of climate change, the vulnerability degree of urban agglomeration is constructed by the Grey Model (GM (1, 1)). Based on the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data sets SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, drought, heat wave, and flood hazards under different emission scenarios are calculated. The vulnerability degree of the urban agglomeration and the climate change hazard were input into the climate change risk assessment model to evaluate future climate change risk. The analysis results show regional differences, with the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration having good urban resilience, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration having slightly higher overall risk, and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration having the highest relative risk overall. On the whole, the higher the emission intensity is, the greater the risk of climate change to each urban agglomeration under different emission scenarios.

Keywords: climate change; urban agglomeration; drought; heat wave; flood; risk assessment; GM (1, 1) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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