Quality of the Wind Wave Forecast in the Black Sea Including Storm Wave Analysis

Stanislav Myslenkov, Alexander Zelenko, Yuriy Resnyanskii, Victor Arkhipkin and Ksenia Silvestrova
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Stanislav Myslenkov: Department of Oceanology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Alexander Zelenko: Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation, 123242 Moscow, Russia
Yuriy Resnyanskii: Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation, 123242 Moscow, Russia
Victor Arkhipkin: Department of Oceanology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Ksenia Silvestrova: Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, 117997 Moscow, Russia

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 23, 1-21

Abstract: This paper presents the results of wind wave forecasts for the Black Sea. Three different versions utilized were utilized: the WAVEWATCH III model with GFS 0.25 forcing on a regular grid, the WAVEWATCH III model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on a regular grid, and the SWAN model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on an unstructured grid. AltiKa satellite altimeter data were used to assess the quality of wind and wave forecasts for the period from 1 April to 31 December 2017. Wave height and wind speed forecast data were obtained with a lead time of up to 72 h. The presented models provide an adequate forecast in terms of modern wave modeling (a correlation coefficient of 0.8–0.9 and an RMSE of 0.25–0.3 m) when all statistics were analyzed. A clear improvement in the wave forecast quality with the high-resolution wind forecast COSMO-RU07 was not registered. The bias error did not exceed 0.5 m in an SWH range from 0 to 3 m. However, the bias sharply increased to −2 or −3 m for an SWH range of 3–4 m. Wave forecast quality assessments were conducted for several storm cases.

Keywords: Black Sea; wave modeling; wind wave forecast; significant wave height; WAVEWATCH III; SWAN; GFS; COSMO-RU07 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:23:p:13099-:d:688570

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