Estimating the Long-Term Reliability of Steel and Cast Iron Pipelines Subject to Pitting Corrosion

Robert E. Melchers and Mukshed Ahammed
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Robert E. Melchers: Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, Australia
Mukshed Ahammed: Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, Australia

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 23, 1-10

Abstract: Water-injection, oil production and water-supply pipelines are prone to pitting corrosion that may have a serious effect on their longer-term serviceability and sustainability. Typically, observed pit-depth data are handled for a reliability analysis using an extreme value distribution such as Gumbel. Available data do not always fit such monomodal probability distributions well, particularly in the most extreme pit-depth region, irrespective of the type of pipeline. Examples of this are presented, the reasons for this phenomenon are discussed and a rationale is presented for the otherwise entirely empirical use of the ‘domain of attraction’ in extreme value applications. This permits a more rational estimation of the probability of pipe-wall perforation, which is necessary for asset management and for system-sustainability decisions.

Keywords: steel; cast iron; pipelines; pitting; reliability; extreme value analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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