Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Its Effects on Crop Yield in Xinjiang in Recent 60 Years

Junqi Cheng and Shuyan Yin
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Junqi Cheng: School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
Shuyan Yin: School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 24, 1-14

Abstract: With global warming, the frequency of drought in China is gradually increasing. The study of drought characteristics and its impact on crop yield is of great significance to ecological construction and food security. Based on the SPEI index in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020, the changing characteristics of drought and their responses to meteorological yield of three kinds of crops (cotton, wheat and corn) were analyzed. The results revealed that the SPEI in Xinjiang exhibited a decreasing trend. Drought occurred less during 1961–1996 and mainly occurred during 1997–2020. The annual variation trend of SPEI decreased regionally, and the arid trend increased from northwest to southeast. The seasonal variation in SPEI displayed an increasing trend only in winter, but a decreasing trend in spring, summer and autumn. The decreasing trend of the SPEI index in spring accounted for 90.91%, mainly distributed in the central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in summer accounted for 81.82%, mainly located in the eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in autumn accounted for 84.85%, mainly located in the south and central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in winter accounted for only 33.33%, mainly located in the southwest, central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the per unit area yield of the three kinds of crops showed a significant increasing trend ( p < 0.01). The meteorological yield of cotton showed an increasing trend, while that of wheat and corn showed a decreasing trend. Correlation analysis of climatic yield and SPEI, and regression analysis of standardized climatic yield residuals and SPEI in different seasons revealed that drought in spring and autumn had the greatest effect on the meteorological yield of cotton, while drought in spring and summer had the greatest effect on the meteorological yield of wheat and corn.

Keywords: drought characteristics; crop yield; Xinjiang; SPEI index; climate changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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