Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Mumbai City, India, Using Remote Sensing Data and a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network-Based Markov Chain Model

Bhanage Vinayak, Han Soo Lee and Shirishkumar Gedem
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Bhanage Vinayak: Centre of Studies in Resources Engineering, IIT Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India
Han Soo Lee: Department of Development Technology, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Shirishkumar Gedem: Centre of Studies in Resources Engineering, IIT Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: In this study, prediction of the future land use land cover (LULC) changes over Mumbai and its surrounding region, India, was conducted to have reference information in urban development. To obtain the historical dynamics of the LULC, a supervised classification algorithm was applied to the Landsat images of 1992, 2002, and 2011. Based on spatial drivers and LULC of 1992 and 2002, the multiple perceptron neural network (MLPNN)-based Markov chain model (MCM) was applied to simulate the LULC in 2011, which was further validated using kappa statistics. Thereafter, by using 2002 and 2011 LULC, MLPNN-MCM was applied to predict the LULC in 2050. This study predicted the prompt urban growth over the suburban regions of Mumbai, which shows, by 2050, the Urban class will occupy 46.87% (1328.77 km 2 ) of the entire study area. As compared to the LULC in 2011, the Urban and Forest areas in 2050 will increase by 14.31% and 2.05%, respectively, while the area under the Agriculture/Sparsely Vegetated and Barren land will decline by 16.87%. The class of water and the coastal feature will experience minute fluctuations (<1%) in the future. The predicted LULC for 2050 can be used as a thematic map in various climatic, environmental, and urban planning models to achieve the aims of sustainable development over the region.

Keywords: LULC; Markov chain model; multiple perceptron neural network; urban growth; urbanization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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