The Long-Run Impacts of Temperature and Rainfall on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mirza Nouman Ali Talib, Masood Ahmed, Mirza Muhammad Naseer, Beata Slusarczyk and József Popp
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Mirza Nouman Ali Talib: Department of Government and Public Policy, Faculty of Contemporary Studies, National Defence University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Masood Ahmed: Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Kent Ridge, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772, Singapore
Mirza Muhammad Naseer: School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Beata Slusarczyk: Faculty of Management, Czestochowa University of Technology, 42-200 Częstochowa, Poland
József Popp: Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Szent Istvan University, 2100 Gödöllő, Hungary

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-16

Abstract: Agricultural sector is significant for Sub-Saharan African countries and is highly exposed and sensitive to climate change. This study aims to investigate the overall long-run impacts of temperature and precipitation on agricultural growth in 32 Sub-Saharan African countries. As proposed by Chudik and Pesaran, our estimations are based on augmented autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) modelling and panel estimators with multifactor error structures. We estimate the “dynamic common correlated long-run effects (DCCE)” through the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach as well as through the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL). For robustness check, we also consider the cross-sectionally augmented error correction method (CS-ECM) and the common dynamic process augmented mean group (AMG). The study suggests that rising temperatures have significantly developed a negative long-term relationship with the agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the long-run effect of precipitation is less important and not statistically significant in most estimations. According to the CS-DL approach, the negative impact of a 1°Crise in temperature could be as high as a 4.2 to 4.7 percentage point decrease in the agricultural growth rate. The results indicate that the warming climate has considerably damaged the agrarian activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, necessitating adaptive climate measures to avoid any food scarcity or economic stagnation in agricultural driven African countries.

Keywords: climate change; agricultural growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; multifactor error structures; cross-section dependence; long-run effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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