Trade-Offs and Synergies of Multiple Ecosystem Services for Different Land Use Scenarios in the Yili River Valley, China

Mingjie Shi, Hongqi Wu, Xin Fan, Hongtao Jia, Tong Dong, Panxing He, Muhammad Fahad Baqa and Pingan Jiang
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Mingjie Shi: College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China
Hongqi Wu: College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China
Xin Fan: School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
Hongtao Jia: College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China
Tong Dong: College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China
Panxing He: College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China
Muhammad Fahad Baqa: Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
Pingan Jiang: College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: Environmental managers and policymakers increasingly discuss trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs). However, few studies have used nonlinear models to provide scenario-specific land-use planning. This study determined the effects of different future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios on ESs in the Yili River Valley, China, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergistic response characteristics. We simulated land-use changes in the Yili River Valley during 2020–2030 under three different scenarios using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model—business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). Subsequently, we evaluated the water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and nutrient export (NE) ESs by combining the PLUS and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models, thus exploring multiple trade-offs among these four ESs at a regional scale. For the BAU scenario, there are some synergistic effects between WY and SR in the Yili River Valley, in addition to significant trade-off effects between CS and NE. For the ED scenario, the rapid expansion of cropland and constructed land is at the expense of forested grassland, leading to a significant decline in ESs. For the EC scenario, the model predicted that the cumulative regional net future carbon storage, cumulative water retention, and cumulative soil conservation would all increase due to ecological engineering and the revegetation of riparian zones and that formerly steep agricultural land can be effective in improving ESs. Meanwhile, the trade-off effect would be significantly weakened between CS and NE. These results can inform decision makers on specific sites where ecological engineering is implemented. Our findings can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of the interactions between ESs indicators in different scenarios.

Keywords: ecosystem services; land-use; synergies; trade-offs; Yili River Valley (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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