Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

Jin Hyuck Kim, Jang Hyun Sung, Eun-Sung Chung, Sang Ug Kim, Minwoo Son and Mohammed Sanusi Shiru
Additional contact information
Jin Hyuck Kim: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
Jang Hyun Sung: Han River Flood Control Office, Ministry of Environment, Seoul 06501, Korea
Eun-Sung Chung: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
Sang Ug Kim: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University, 1 Gangwon-do 24341, Korea
Minwoo Son: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon 34134, Korea
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru: Department of Environmental Sciences, Federal University Dutse, Dutse P.M.B. 7156, Nigeria

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-22

Abstract: Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.

Keywords: drought; SDI; shared socioeconomic pathway; SPEI; SPI (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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