Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in the Zhoushan Islands Based on LUCC

Henghui Xi, Wanglai Cui, Li Cai, Mengyuan Chen and Chenglei Xu
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Henghui Xi: School of Marine Science and Technology, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Wanglai Cui: School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Li Cai: School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Mengyuan Chen: School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Chenglei Xu: School of International Affairs and Public Administration, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-13

Abstract: Islands are the confluence of terrestrial ecology and marine ecology. With urban expansion and economic development, the ecological environment of islands is facing serious threats. In order to study the island area land use change/cover (LUCC) and its impact on the ecosystem service value (ESV), this study was conducted. This study evaluated the ESV of Zhoushan Islands based on the LUCC, using the equivalent coefficient method, and simulated and analyzed the ESV of Zhoushan Islands in 2025 under different scenarios using the "Future Land Use Simulation Model". The results showed: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the ESV of Zhoushan Islands showed a "∧" type change trend, and the total amount decreased by 14.1141 million yuan. (2) The spatial distribution and changes of ESV have a certain regularity. The ESV in the center of the island and in the water system area is relatively high but does not change significantly over time, while the ESV of urban buildings and cultivated areas on the edge of the island is low, and, over time, the change is significant. (3) Compared with 2020, the total ESV under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario shows a slow downward trend, the ESV under the socio-economic development (SED) scenario shows a significant downward trend, and the total ESV under the ecological protection priority (EPP) scenario has increased. This research provides a theoretical basis and support for the development and utilization of island space and the improvement of "eco-economy-society" benefits; in addition, the research results provide support for scientific decision-making on the sustainable use of resources in island areas (island cities) and the sustainable management of ecosystems.

Keywords: evaluation and prediction; ecosystem service value; scenario simulation; Zhoushan Islands; LUCC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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