Spatial Econometric Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes

Tibor Sipos, Anteneh Afework Mekonnen and Zsombor Szabó
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Tibor Sipos: Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Faculty of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, H-1111 Budapest, Hungary
Anteneh Afework Mekonnen: Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Faculty of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, H-1111 Budapest, Hungary
Zsombor Szabó: Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Faculty of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, H-1111 Budapest, Hungary

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Keeping the basic principles of sustainable development, it must be highlighted that decisions about transport safety projects must be made following expert preparation, using reliable, professional methods. A prerequisite for the cost–benefit analysis of investments is to constantly monitor the efficiency of accident forecasting models and to update these continuously. This paper presents an accident forecasting model for urban areas, which handles both the properties of the public road infrastructure and spatial dependency relations. As the aim was to model the urban environment, we focused on the road public transportation modes (bus and trolley) and the vulnerable road users (bicyclist) using shared infrastructure elements. The road accident data from 2016 to 2018 on the whole road network of Budapest, Hungary, is analyzed, focusing on road links (i.e., road segments between junctions) by applying spatial econometric statistical models. As a result of this article, we have developed a model that can be used by decision-makers as well, which is suitable for estimating the expected value of accidents, and thus for the development of the optimal sequence of appropriate road safety interventions.

Keywords: spatial dependence; econometric models; autocorrelation; road traffic accidents; spatial lag; spatial error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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