Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case

Gintautas Mozgeris, Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė and Daiva Juknelienė
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Gintautas Mozgeris: Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, 53361 Akademija, Lithuania
Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Universiteto Str. 10-314, 53361 Akademija, Lithuania
Daiva Juknelienė: Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, 53361 Akademija, Lithuania

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-24

Abstract: Lithuanian forestry has long been shaped by the classical normal forest theory, aiming for even long-term flow of timber, and the aspiration to preserve domestic forest resources, leading to very conservative forest management. With radically changing forest management conditions, climate change mitigation efforts suggest increasing timber demands in the future. The main research question asked in this study addresses whether current forest management principles in Lithuania can secure non-decreasing long-term flow of timber and carbon accumulation. The development of national forest resources and forestry was simulated for the next century using the Kupolis decision support system and assuming that current forest management is continued under the condition of three scenarios, differing by climate change mitigation efforts. Potential development trends of key forest attributes were analysed and compared with projected carbon stock changes over time, incorporating major forest carbon pools—biomass, harvested wood products and emission savings due to energy and product substitution. The key finding was that the total carbon balance should remain positive in Lithuania during the next one hundred years; however, it might start to decrease after several decades, with steadily increasing harvesting and a reduced increase of forest productivity. Additionally, incorporating the harvested wood and CO 2 emissions savings in carbon balance evaluations is essential.

Keywords: sustainable forest management; evenness of timber flow; carbon stock changes; simulation; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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