Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change

Debashis Nath, Keerthi Sasikumar, Reshmita Nath and Wen Chen
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Debashis Nath: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Keerthi Sasikumar: Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Reshmita Nath: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Wen Chen: Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious threat to global health system and economy. It was first reported in Wuhan, China, and later appeared in Central Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. The spatial COVID-19 distribution pattern highly resembles the global population distribution and international travel routes. We select 48 cities in 16 countries across 4 continents having infection counts higher than 10,000 (by 25 April 2020) as the COVID-19 epicenters. At the initial stage, daily COVID-19 counts co-varies strongly with local temperature and humidity, which are clustered within 0–10 °C and 70–95%, respectively. Later, it spreads in colder (−15 °C) and warmer (25 °C) countries, due to faster adaptability in diverse environmental conditions. We introduce a combined temperature-humidity profile, which is essential for prediction of COVID-19 cases based on environmental conditions. The COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on global CO 2 emission hotspots and its distribution maximizes at 7.49 °C, which is 1.35 °C/2.44 °C higher than current (2020)/historical (1961–1990) mean. Approximately 75% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe-extreme end of historical temperature distribution spectrum, which establish its tighter and possible association with extreme climate change. A strong mitigation measure is essential to abate the GHG emissions, which may reduce the probability of such pandemics in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19; global; population density; temperature & humidity; climate change and extremes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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