Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China

Shuaishuai Li, Jiahua Zhang, Sha Zhang, Yun Bai, Dan Cao, Tiantian Cheng, Zhongtai Sun, Qi Liu and Til Prasad Pangali Sharma
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Shuaishuai Li: Remote Sensing Information and Digital Earth Center, College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Jiahua Zhang: Remote Sensing Information and Digital Earth Center, College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Sha Zhang: Remote Sensing Information and Digital Earth Center, College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Yun Bai: Remote Sensing Information and Digital Earth Center, College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Dan Cao: Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
Tiantian Cheng: Remote Sensing Information and Digital Earth Center, College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Zhongtai Sun: Remote Sensing Information and Digital Earth Center, College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Qi Liu: College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Til Prasad Pangali Sharma: Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-27

Abstract: Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to future climate changes would substantially contribute to the scientific assessment of vegetation–climate interactions. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of vegetation in China were projected and compared based on comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and five sensitivity levels were proposed. The results show that the CSCS model performs well in simulating vegetation distribution. The number of vegetation types would increase from 36 to 40. Frigid–perhumid rain tundra and alpine meadow are the most distributed vegetation types, with an area of more than 78.45 × 10 4 km 2 , whereas there are no climate conditions suitable for tropical–extra-arid tropical desert in China. Some plants would benefit from climate changes to a certain extent. Warm temperate–arid warm temperate zone semidesert would expand by more than 1.82% by the 2080s. A continuous expansion of more than 18.81 × 10 4 km 2 and northward shift of more than 124.93 km in tropical forest would occur across all three scenarios. However, some ecosystems would experience inevitable changes. More than 1.33% of cool temperate–extra-arid temperate zone desert would continuously shrink. Five sensitivity levels present an interphase distribution. More extreme scenarios would result in wider ecosystem responses. The evolutionary trend from cold–arid vegetation to warm–wet vegetation is a prominent feature despite the variability in ecosystem responses to climate changes.

Keywords: terrestrial ecosystems; potential natural vegetation (PNV); comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS); future climate scenarios; sensitivity; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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