Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Actinidia arguta under Different Climate Scenarios

Yining Ma, Xiaoling Lu, Kaiwei Li, Chunyi Wang, Ari Guna and Jiquan Zhang
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Yining Ma: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Xiaoling Lu: School of Tourism and Geography, Bai Cheng Normal University, Bai Cheng 137000, China
Kaiwei Li: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Chunyi Wang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Ari Guna: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Jiquan Zhang: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: Actinidia arguta (Siebold and Zucc.) Planch.ex Miq, called “hardy kiwifruit”, “baby kiwi” or “kiwi berry”, has a unique taste, is rich in nutrients and has high economic value and broad market prospects. Active research on the potential geographic distribution of A. arguta in China aims to provide a reference basis for its resource investigation, conservation, development and utilization and introduction of cultivation. In this study, the Maxent model was used to combine climatic factors, soil factors and geographical factors (elevation, slope and aspect) to predict the current and future (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) potential distribution of A. arguta and to analyze the impact of climate change on it. The results showed that the suitable distribution range of A. arguta in China was 23–43 N and 100–125 E, with a total area of about 3.4451 × 10 6 km 2 . The highly suitable area of A. arguta was mainly concentrated in the middle and low mountain areas of the south of Shaanxi, the east of Sichuan, the middle and west of Guizhou and the west of Yunnan, presenting a circular distribution. The Jackknife test was used to calculate the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. arguta . The first four main factors were annual mean temperature (bio_1), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio_18), elevation (ELE) and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio_10), which provided a contribution up to 81.7%. Under the scenarios of three representative concentrations (SSP1_2.6, SSP2_4.5 and SSP5_8.5) in the future, the area of low and moderate suitable habitat decreased, while the area of highly suitable habitat increased. The migration direction of the centroid in the highly suitable habitat moved to the southwest in the future scenario period.

Keywords: Actinidia arguta; ENMeval; MaxEnt; climate change; SSP scenarios; suitable habitat (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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