A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes

André Souza Oliveira, Raphael Oliveira dos Santos, Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva, Lilian Lefol Nani Guarieiro, Matthias Angerhausen, Uwe Reisgen, Renelson Ribeiro Sampaio, Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado, Enrique López Droguett, Paulo Henrique Ferreira da Silva and Rodrigo Santiago Coelho
Additional contact information
André Souza Oliveira: SENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil
Raphael Oliveira dos Santos: SENAI CIMATEC, Programa de Pós-Graduação MPDS/GETEC/MCTI—Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil
Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva: SENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil
Lilian Lefol Nani Guarieiro: SENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil
Matthias Angerhausen: Forschungs- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft Fügetechnik GmbH, Driescher Gässchen 5, 52062 Aachen, NRW, Germany
Uwe Reisgen: Institut für Schweißtechnik und Fügetechnik, RWTH Aachen University, Pontstraße 49, 52062 Aachen, NRW, Germany
Renelson Ribeiro Sampaio: SENAI CIMATEC, Programa de Pós-Graduação MPDS/GETEC/MCTI—Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil
Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado: SENAI CIMATEC, Programa de Pós-Graduação MPDS/GETEC/MCTI—Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil
Enrique López Droguett: Departamento de Ingeniería Mecánica, Universidad de Chile, Exibir Comentário, Santiago 837-0456, Chile
Paulo Henrique Ferreira da Silva: UFBA, Departamento de Estatística, Av. Adhemar de Barros, Ondina, Salvador, BA 40170-110, Brazil
Rodrigo Santiago Coelho: SENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, Brazil

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: In this study, GMAW and CMT welding technologies were evaluated in terms of their technological lifecycles based on their patent datasets together with the S-curve concept, and the joints were evaluated in terms of their welding characteristics. To predict the future trends for both technologies, different models based on the time-series and growth-curve methods were tested. From a process point of view, the results showed better performance and stability for the CMT process based on the heat input to the base material and the frequency of the short circuits. The temperature distribution in the sample revealed that the GMAW process delivers higher values and, consequently, greater heat transfer. Regarding the technological lifecycle, the analyses revealed that the CMT welding process, despite being recent, is already in its mature phase. Moreover, the GMAW welding process is positioned in the growth phase on the S-curve, indicating a possibility of advancement. The main findings indicated that through mathematical modelling, it is possible to predict, in a precise way, the inflection points and the maturity phases of each technology and chart their trends with expert opinions. The new perspectives for analysing maturity levels and welding characteristics presented herein will be essential for a broaden decision-making market process.

Keywords: S-curve; technology lifecycle; GMAW; CMT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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