Predicting Potential Habitat Changes of Two Invasive Alien Fish Species with Climate Change at a Regional Scale

Seungbum Hong, Inyoung Jang, Daegeun Kim, Suhwan Kim, Hyun Su Park and Kyungeun Lee
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Seungbum Hong: National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea
Inyoung Jang: National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea
Daegeun Kim: National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea
Suhwan Kim: National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea
Hyun Su Park: National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea
Kyungeun Lee: National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-12

Abstract: Developing national-level policies related to climate change induced expansions of invasive species requires predictive modelling at a regional scale level. This study aimed to predict future changes in the habitat distributions of two major invasive alien fish species, Micropterus salmoides and Lepomis macrochirus , in South Korea. An ensemble system with multiple species distribution models was used for the prediction, and gridded water portion data from the linear-structure information on river channels inputted as habitat characteristics of freshwater ecosystem into the models. Bioclimatic variables at 20-year intervals from 2001 to 2100 were generated from predicted temperature and precipitation data under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall distribution probabilities of the potential habitats increased with time in both climate change scenarios, and the potential habitats were predicted to expand to upstream areas. Combined with regional ecological value information, such as biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems, these results can be an important basis for deriving regional priority information for managing alien species in climate change. Additionally, the modelling approach is highly applicable to various national-level policies for ecosystem conservation since it is not greatly restricted by spatial scales.

Keywords: invasive alien species; freshwater ecosystem; climate change impact; species distribution modelling; regional-scale application; habitat expansion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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