Modeling the Distribution of Wild Cotton Gossypium aridum in Mexico Using Flowering Growing Degree Days and Annual Available Soil Water

Alma Delia Baez-Gonzalez, Alicia Melgoza-Castillo, Mario Humberto Royo-Marquez, James R. Kiniry and Manyowa N. Meki
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Alma Delia Baez-Gonzalez: Campo Experimental Pabellon, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP), km 32.5 Carr. Aguascalientes-Zacatecas, Pabellon de Arteaga 20660, Aguascalientes, Mexico
Alicia Melgoza-Castillo: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecologia, Universidad Autonoma de Chihuahua, Perif. Francisco. R. Almada Km 1, Zootecnia, Chihuahua 33820, Chihuahua, Mexico
Mario Humberto Royo-Marquez: Campo Experimental La Campana, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP), km 33.5 Carr. Chihuahua-Ojinaga, Cd., Aldama Chihuahua 32910, Chihuahua, Mexico
James R. Kiniry: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory, 8080 E. Blackland Rd., Temple, TX 76502, USA
Manyowa N. Meki: AgriLife Research, Blackland Research and Extension Center, 720 E. Blackland Rd., Temple, TX 76502, USA

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-18

Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter species distribution and habitat composition, with wild species being particularly vulnerable. Gossypium aridum , a wild cotton species in Mexico, has shown a decrease in habitat extent and population; however, the data are not precise. The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a distribution model of G. aridum in Mexico, (2) to identify areas with environmental conditions similar to where the species currently maintains populations, and (3) to determine which variable, flowering growing degree days (FGDD) or annual available soil water (AASW, mm year −1 ), has greater influence on the distribution of the species. Geographic information system (GIS) software was used with datasets from two databases in Mexico that were partitioned for site characterization, model construction, calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis. The range of 330–860 FGDD and 4–110 mm year −1 AASW best described the species habitat, according to results of seven precision and accuracy statistical tests. The model identified geographic regions throughout the country with similar conditions as the locations where the species has been observed, including some where no collections have not yet been registered in Mexican databases. FGDD, rather than AASW, showed greater influence on the distribution of the species. The generated information can be used to guide collection expeditions for G. aridum and to study climatic impact on species distribution. The approach using FGDD and AASW can be used in the modeling of wild cotton species that are valuable natural resources for crop improvement.

Keywords: wild cotton; Gossypium; Gossypium aridum; flowering growing degree days; annual available soil water; sensitivity analysis; wild cotton distribution; modeling; ethnobotany; biodiversity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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