Ensemble Climate and Streamflow Projections for the Assiniboine River Basin, Canada

Muhammad Rehan Anis and David J. Sauchyn
Additional contact information
Muhammad Rehan Anis: Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Suite 219-2 Research Drive, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
David J. Sauchyn: Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Suite 219-2 Research Drive, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-18

Abstract: The Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) is subject to an exceptionally variable precipitation regime of the Canadian Prairies, ranging between record droughts and unprecedented flooding in just the past decade. To assess the impact of a changing climate on hydroclimate variability in the ARB, we used the bias–corrected simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) to drive MESH model for two 60–year periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 to simulate ARB flows at eight hydrometric stations. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season (~10–38%) except for summer (~−1–−5%). Minimum winter and maximum summer temperatures have the largest seasonal trends, increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future (2021–2050) and 5–6 °C in the far future (2051–2080). These climate changes produce higher winter river flows while peak runoff shifts by several weeks to earlier in the year. There is a shift in the magnitude and timing of extreme water levels. The ensemble of climate projections from a single model and one RCP to the variability and uncertainty in the future hydrology supports adaptation planning in the industrial sectors of Saskatchewan’s economy.

Keywords: ensemble modeling; land surface hydrological model; climate change; extreme runoff change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/11/6487/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/11/6487/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:11:p:6487-:d:824243

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().