Characterization and Prediction of Water Stress Using Time Series and Artificial Intelligence Models

Amuktamalyada Gorlapalli, Supriya Kallakuri, Pagadala Damodaram Sreekanth, Rahul Patil, Nirmala Bandumula, Gabrijel Ondrasek, Meena Admala, Channappa Gireesh, Madhyavenkatapura Siddaiah Anantha, Brajendra Parmar, Brahamdeo Kumar Yadav, Raman Meenakshi Sundaram and Santosha Rathod
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Amuktamalyada Gorlapalli: College of Agriculture, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad 500030, India
Supriya Kallakuri: College of Agriculture, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad 500030, India
Pagadala Damodaram Sreekanth: ICAR—National Academy of Agricultural Research Management, Hyderabad 500030, India
Rahul Patil: College of Agricultural Engineering, University of Agricultural Sciences, Raichur 584104, India
Nirmala Bandumula: ICAR—Indian Institute of Rice Research, Hyderabad 500030, India
Gabrijel Ondrasek: Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Meena Admala: College of Agriculture, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad 500030, India
Channappa Gireesh: ICAR—Indian Institute of Rice Research, Hyderabad 500030, India
Madhyavenkatapura Siddaiah Anantha: ICAR—Indian Institute of Rice Research, Hyderabad 500030, India
Brajendra Parmar: ICAR—Indian Institute of Rice Research, Hyderabad 500030, India
Brahamdeo Kumar Yadav: Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Balumath, Latehar 829202, India
Raman Meenakshi Sundaram: ICAR—Indian Institute of Rice Research, Hyderabad 500030, India
Santosha Rathod: ICAR—Indian Institute of Rice Research, Hyderabad 500030, India

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-18

Abstract: In agroecosystems, drought is a critical climatic phenomenon that affects evapotranspiration and induces water stress in plants. The objective in this study was to characterize and forecast water stress in the Hyderabad region of India using artificial intelligence models. The monthly precipitation data for the period 1982–2021 was characterized by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and modeled using the classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial intelligence (AI), i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) model. The results show that on the short-term SPI3 time scale the studied region experienced extreme water deficit in 1983, 1992, 1993, 2007, 2015, and 2018, while on the mid-term SPI6 time scale, 1983, 1991, 2011, and 2016 were extremely dry. In addition, the prediction of drought at both SPI3 and SPI6 time scales by AI models outperformed the classical ARIMA models in both, training and validation data sets. Among applied models, the SVR model performed better than other models in modeling and predicting drought (confirmed by root mean square error—RMSE), while the Diebold–Mariano test confirmed that SVR output was significantly superior. A reduction in the prediction error of SVR by 48% and 32% (vs. ARIMA), and by 21% and 26% (vs. ANN) was observed in the test data sets for both SPI3 and SPI6 time scales. These results may be due to the ability of the SVR model to account for the nonlinear and complex patterns in the input data sets against the classical linear ARIMA model. These results may contribute to more sustainable and efficient management of water resources/stress in cropping systems.

Keywords: drought; water stress; standardized precipitation index; SPI3; SPI6; artificial intelligence; auto-regressive integrated moving average; artificial neural network; support vector regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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