Based on ISM—NK Tunnel Fire Multi-Factor Coupling Evolution Game Research

Jie Liu, Guanding Yang, Wanqing Wang, Haowen Zhou, Xinyue Hu and Qian Ma
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Jie Liu: Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Guanding Yang: Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Wanqing Wang: School of Finance, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Longquan Road, Kunming 650221, China
Haowen Zhou: Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Xinyue Hu: Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Qian Ma: Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-24

Abstract: A tunnel is a complex network system with multiple risk factors interacting. At present, the cause analysis of tunnel fire accidents focuses on exploring risk sources and risk assessment, ignoring the interaction between risk factors. A single model has certain limitations. By proposing the concept of the multi-factor coupled evolutionary game of tunnel fire, integrating the natural killing model (NK) and the explanatory structure model (ISM), the evolutionary game of multi-factor coupling of tunnel fire is studied from the perspective of micro and macro analysis, qualitative and quantitative research, the coupling relationship and effect between risk factors are discussed, 100 tunnel fire accidents and 158 tunnel fire literature at home and abroad are analyzed, and 40 typical tunnel fire risk factors and 31 coupling types of fire cause factors are extracted. Using the combined ISM-NK model, a seven-level network model of tunnel fire accident risk coupling is constructed, and the degree of coupling of various types of risk factors is evaluated. The hierarchical network cascade model revealed that 4 of the 40 typical tunnel fire risk factors were the underlying risk factors, 23 shallow layers were the risk factors and direct influencing factors, and 13 were the middle-risk factors and indirect influencing factors. The NK model shows that with the increase of coupling nodes, the frequency of tunnel fire accidents also shows an upward trend, and the subjective risk factor coupled with tunnel fires have a higher frequency than the objective risk factors.

Keywords: tunnel fire; explanatory structural model (ISM); natural killing model (NK); coupling analysis; evolutionary game (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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