An Optimization Study of Provincial Carbon Emission Allowance Allocation in China Based on an Improved Dynamic Zero-Sum-Gains Slacks-Based-Measure Model

Xin Zheng, Shenya Mao, Siqi Lv and Sheng Wang
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Xin Zheng: Department of Cultural Industry, Concord University College, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350012, China
Shenya Mao: School of Economics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
Siqi Lv: School of Economics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
Sheng Wang: School of Economics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: In order to achieve its 2030 carbon emission peak target, China needs to adjust and allocate energy consumption and initial carbon emission allowances for each province in a phased and planned manner. Thus, this study applied an improved dynamic undesirable zero-sum-gains slacks-based-measure (ZSG-SBM) model to evaluate provincial CO 2 emission reduction scenarios and energy allocation for 2015–2019 and calculate the optimal allocation values of carbon emission allowances for each province in 2030. The results showed that China’s allocation efficiency values for total energy exhibited rising and then declining trends during 2015–2019 and that most input–output term efficiency values had room for improvement. Furthermore, after four adjustment iterations of the improved dynamic undesirable ZSG-SBM model, the modeled China achieved optimal carbon emission efficiency for the whole country. In the final model, 19 provinces were allowed to increase their carbon emissions in 2030, while the remaining 11 provinces needed to reduce their emissions. The findings of this paper can help regulators to establish fairer and more effective policy solutions to promote regional synergistic emission reduction, achieve the national goal of peak total carbon emissions, and promote the green, coordinated, and sustainable development of China’s economy.

Keywords: dynamic undesirable ZSG-SBM model; carbon emission allowance; energy allocation efficiency; carbon emission efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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