The Prediction of the Potentially Suitable Distribution Area of Cinnamomum mairei H. Lév in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

Shuai Qi, Wei Luo, Ke-Lin Chen, Xin Li, Huo-Lin Luo, Zai-Qiang Yang and Dong-Mei Yin
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Shuai Qi: Shanghai Institute of Technology, College of Ecological Engineering and Technology, Shanghai 201418, China
Wei Luo: Shanghai Institute of Technology, College of Ecological Engineering and Technology, Shanghai 201418, China
Ke-Lin Chen: Shanghai Institute of Technology, College of Ecological Engineering and Technology, Shanghai 201418, China
Xin Li: Shanghai Institute of Technology, College of Ecological Engineering and Technology, Shanghai 201418, China
Huo-Lin Luo: School of Life Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
Zai-Qiang Yang: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Dong-Mei Yin: Shanghai Institute of Technology, College of Ecological Engineering and Technology, Shanghai 201418, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 13, 1-13

Abstract: Cinnamomum mairei H. Lév is a rare and valuable medicinal and timber species in China. It not only has a narrow distribution, but also has few resources, is an endangered species, and is a nationally protected plant. Climate change impacts the growth and development of plants; therefore, it is of great practical significance to predict the current and future distribution of C. mairei H. Lév in suitable areas of China and to protect these endangered plants. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable growing areas for C. mairei H. Lév according to six environmental factors (the temperature seasonality, max. temperature in the warmest month, min. temperature in the coldest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the coldest quarter and aspect), and three different climate models (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) were simulated for three periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). In the present study, the suitable ecological environment for C. mairei H. Lév comprised the following: a min. temperature in the coldest month from −0.63 to 4.36 °C, temperature seasonality from 130.67 to 642.58, a max. temperature in the warmest month from 28.86 to 45.97 °C, and precipitation in the coldest quarter from 40.12 to 101.13 mm. Highly suitable habitats for C. mairei H. Lév are located in the Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing City, China (southwestern part of China), and to a lesser extent in the Xizang Province and Shaanxi Province, China. The moderately suitable habitat district overlaps with the highly suitable habitat district, and a small number of suitable habitats are distributed in Guangxi Province, Hunan Province, Hubei Province, and Henan Province. In the future, the highly suitable areas for C. mairei H. Lév will increase slightly, and the gravity points will shift toward northeast China. Our simulations are helpful for understanding the geoecological characteristics of this species and provide a basis for regional projections of this species under current and future climate change scenarios in China. It is proposed to establish nature reserves for C. mairei H. Lév in the Chongqing, Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou provinces of China.

Keywords: climate change; Cinnamomum mairei H. Lév; potential geographical distribution; suitable habitat; MaxEnt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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