Forecasting the Volume of Tourism Services in Uzbekistan

Bahodirhon Safarov, Hisham Mohammad Al-Smadi, Makhina Buzrukova, Bekzot Janzakov, Alexandru Ilieş, Vasile Grama, Dorina Camelia Ilieș, Katalin Csobán Vargáné and Lóránt Dénes Dávid
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Bahodirhon Safarov: Department of Digital Economy, Faculty of Human Resources Management, Samarkand State University, Samarkand 140105, Uzbekistan
Hisham Mohammad Al-Smadi: Department of Financial and Administrative Sciences, Ajloun College, AL-Balqa Applied University, Ajloun 26816, Jordan
Makhina Buzrukova: Department of Digital Economy, Faculty of Human Resources Management, Samarkand State University, Samarkand 140105, Uzbekistan
Bekzot Janzakov: Department of Food and Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics, Samarkand Branch of Tashkent State University of Economics, Samarkand 140103, Uzbekistan
Alexandru Ilieş: Department of Geography, Tourism and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Oradea, 1 Universitatii Street, 410087 Oradea, Romania
Vasile Grama: Department of Geography, Tourism and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Oradea, 1 Universitatii Street, 410087 Oradea, Romania
Dorina Camelia Ilieș: Department of Geography, Tourism and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Oradea, 1 Universitatii Street, 410087 Oradea, Romania
Katalin Csobán Vargáné: Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary
Lóránt Dénes Dávid: Institute of Rural Development and Sustainable Economy, The Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE), H-2100 Godollo, Hungary

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 13, 1-18

Abstract: The aim of the present research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism as well as to develop its forecast. Six proxy indicators of the above-mentioned factors were selected as variables, namely, welfare (real GDP per capita, life expectancy, consumer price index), infrastructure (passenger transportation volume), security (total recorded crimes), and the environment (CO 2 emissions). We used a time series-univariate ARIMA model to forecast the inbound tourism in the Republic of Uzbekistan, and applied the ARDL model to assess the impact of lagged real GDP per capita on inbound tourism in both the short and long terms. The results of our research show that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists in the country, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the effects of which are expected to persist beyond 2026.

Keywords: gross domestic product; tourism; infrastructure; forecast; trend; tourism market; ARIMA; OLS (ordinary least squares) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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