Distinguishing the Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Livelihood Environment of Pastoralists in the Qinghai Lake Basin

Zhiyuan Song, Ziyi Gao, Xianming Yang and Yuejing Ge
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Zhiyuan Song: School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
Ziyi Gao: College of Tourism, Qinghai Nationalities University, Xining 810007, China
Xianming Yang: School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
Yuejing Ge: Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 14, 1-19

Abstract: Grassland vegetation is the largest terrestrial ecosystem in the Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), and it is also the most important means of production for herders’ livelihoods. Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation changes is an essential task for ensuring the sustainable livelihood of pastoralists. To this end, we investigated vegetation cover changes in the QLB from 2000 to 2020 using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), meteorological raster data, and digital elevation and used residual analysis of multiple linear regression to evaluate the residuals of human activities. The residual analysis of partial derivatives was used to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to changes in vegetation cover. The results showed that: (1) The vegetation coverage of the QLB increased significantly (0.002/a, p < 0.01), with 91.38% of the area showing a greening trend, and 8.62% of the area suffering a degrading trend. The NDVI decreased substantially along the altitude gradient (−0.02/a, p < 0.01), with the highest vegetation coverage at 3600–3700 m (0.37/a). The vegetation degraded from 3200–3300 m, vegetation greening accelerated from 3300–3500 m, and vegetation greening slowed above 3500 m. (2) The contribution of climate change, temperature (T), and precipitation (P) to vegetation cover change were 1.62/a, 0.005/a, and 1.615/a, respectively. Below 3500 m, the vegetation greening was more limited by P. Above 3500 m, the vegetation greening was mainly limited by T. (3) Residual analysis showed that the contribution of human activities to vegetation cover was −1.618/a. Regarding the altitude gradient, at 3300–3500 m, human activities had the highest negative contribution to vegetation coverage (−2.389/a), and at 3200–3300 m, they had the highest positive contribution (0.389/a). In the past 21 years, the impact of human activities on vegetation coverage changed from negative to positive. Before 2009, the annual average NDVIres value was negative; after 2010, the average yearly NDVIres value turned positive. In general, the vegetation greening of the QLB depends on climate warming and humidification. The positive impact of human activities over the past decade was also essential for vegetation greening. These findings deepen our understanding of the QLB vegetation changes under climate change and human activities.

Keywords: NDVI; climate change; human activities; residual analysis; Qinghai Lake Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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